Vice Presidential Candidates Not Filling the Gaps

Dow Jones Insight Staff

In choosing their running mates, both Obama and McCain were viewed as having selected candidates who could compensate for their own areas of actual or perceived weakness – in Obama’s case the issue of experience especially as it relates to foreign policy, and in McCain’s case, his lack of appeal to the party’s conservative base as well as his age. Based on analysis of mainstream media sources tracked by Dow Jones Insight, they may not be getting quite what they expected.

During the period September 18-25*, Joe Biden’s name was mentioned 470 times in connection with the issue of experience, representing 14% of his 3,466 total mentions on the 10 issues being considered. Obama, meanwhile, received 999 mentions, or 6% of his total 17,044 mentions on the 10 issues. So while Biden received fewer mentions on the topic due to his lower coverage overall, the issue of “experience” represented a significant portion of his overall coverage, indicating that this message is coming across well.

Another area in which Biden’s share exceeded Obama’s during the period was the issue of taxes, though this outcome may be have been more inadvertent than by design. Biden received 986 mentions in conjunction with taxes, or 28% of his total, while Obama received 2,316 mentions on taxes, or 14% of his total mentions. The primary driver for Biden’s coverage was his statement that it would be patriotic for wealthy Americans to pay higher taxes – a statement the Republicans immediately attacked and that served as a distraction from the foreign policy expertise that Biden’s presence on the ticket was expected to fill.

Looking at some key foreign policy issues – specifically Iraq, Iran and terrorism – Biden only had a higher proportion of coverage than Obama on Iraq, with 164 mentions, or 5%, compared to Obama’s 437, or 3%. On Iran, Biden had 103 mentions, or 3%, compared to Obama’s 644, or 4%, while on terrorism, Biden received 172 mentions, or 5%, and Obama received 883 mentions, also 5%.

On the Republican side, Palin received higher percentages of coverage than her running mate on a number of issues unrelated to the reasons she was selected. Aside from the economy, which was the top issue for both McCain and Palin, her largest percentage of coverage on the 10 issues came on the topic of experience, for which she received 1,455 mentions, or 20% of her 7,302 total mentions on the issues considered. McCain received 1,513 mentions, or 8% of a total 18,857 mentions on the tracked issues. Given her short tenure as governor, discussions of Palin and experience are clearly not a positive development for the McCain team.

Palin also exceeded McCain on Iran, Iraq and terrorism, topics on which her knowledge is being challenged. She received 726 mentions, or 10%, on Iran compared to McCain’s 751 mentions, or 4%; 190 mentions on Iraq, or 2.6%, compared to McCain’s 410, or 2.2%; and 586 mentions, or 8%, on terrorism compared to McCain’s 1,206, or 6%.

On the issue of energy, an expected Palin strength, the vice presidential candidate received 249 mentions, or 3%, which McCain also exceeded, netting 883 mentions, or 5%.

*The analyzed period begins a few days after the start of the current crisis in the financial markets (September 15) and ends prior to the first presidential debate (September 26). We opted to omit those periods as they would have skewed coverage toward the economy and foreign policy.

Methodology: Mainstream press sources include more than 6,000 newspapers, wires, magazines, radio and TV transcripts and more than 13,000 current-awareness news Web sites. The 10 issues chosen were selected as most closely aligned with the areas of weakness the candidates needed to fill.

The VPs Are Generating Talk, But What About? Experience, and Lack Thereof

By Dow Jones Insight Staff

Given her brief 20 months in office as Alaska governor and previous role as small-town mayor, the primary topic of discussion regarding Palin has thus far been experience, or her perceived lack thereof, especially as it compares to Obama’s and Biden’s. But her stances on abortion and her close association with the Christian faith have also been among the first and best-known bits of her background to emerge.

Of Palin’s total 46,462 mentions from August 27 to September 3 that involved one of the issues tracked by Dow Jones Insight, some 13,118, or 28%, were in relation to the term “experience,” as Democrats derided Palin’s lack of it, Republicans defended her record and pundits said the Republicans may have undermined one of their key arguments against Obama.

On the issue of abortion, Palin received 7,540 mentions, or 16% of her total issues-related mentions, while the issue of faith garnered 6,958 mentions, or 15%. Surprisingly, the topic of energy generated just 2,808 mentions in association with Palin, or 6%, despite her involvement with, and vocal opinions about, various key energy issues.

The biggest driver of Biden’s recent coverage has also been “experience,” as his presence on the ticket is seen to bring the experience that Obama lacks. For the period August 18 through September 1, Biden was mentioned in proximity to “experience” 11,115 times, or 31% of all Biden mentions on the tracked issues, which represents an even higher proportion of his overall total than Palin’s 28%. (Note: The date range for our Biden analysis goes back further than Palin’s because he received significant coverage as a likely running mate prior to being selected and was specifically seen as bringing experience and foreign-policy credentials to the Democratic ticket. Therefore, the total number of mentions on each topic is not comparable between candidates, though the shares for each issue, as a percentage of each candidate’s issues-related coverage, are comparable).

The theme of “change” also received strong coverage in regard to Biden as he joined the Democratic rallying cry for change while simultaneously his naming was considered by some to be out of step with the concept, in light of his more than three decades in Washington. Biden was mentioned 7,569 times in close proximity to the term “change,” or 21% of his total 36,136 issues-related mentions. Terrorism (1,505, or 4%), Iraq (1,275, or 4%) and Afghanistan (1,008, or 3%) also were among the top 10 issues for Biden during the tracked period, but given his role on the ticket, these figures were somewhat surprisingly low.

Methodology: The charts indicate coverage of both candidates on key issues in mainstream and social media in the time periods indicated. For Palin, we chose the most recent 7 days because she had little election-related coverage prior to being named McCain’s running mate on the 29th. For Biden, we include several days prior to his being named, as he was already being discussed as a likely running mate. Mainstream press sources include more than 6,000 newspapers, wires, magazines, radio and TV transcripts and more than 13,000 current-awareness news Web sites. Social media sources include 2 million of the most influential blogs and more than 60,000 message boards.

Experience is Out, Change is In…

Dow Jones Insight Staff

On April 6, the Clinton campaign announced the demotion of its chief strategist, Mark Penn, over a conflict of interest in his role as private lobbyist for a free-trade deal that Clinton opposes. Prior to his departure, Penn had been the key proponent of the campaign’s strategy to emphasize Clinton’s experience, amid criticism from those who believed that such a focus was sharply at odds with an electorate clamoring for change.

We took a look at Clinton’s coverage in the mainstream media on the issues of “experience” and “change” over the past month to see if there is evidence of a shift in messaging from “during Penn” to “after Penn,” and it looks like there is.

With Penn at the helm from mid-March to early April, “experience” and “change” each had a 36% share of voice of the four tracked issues. But after his demotion, “change” increased to a 41% share, while “experience” dropped sharply to just 20%.

Methodology: “Close proximity” is defined as within about 50 words. Sources include more than 6,000 newspapers, wires, magazines, radio and TV transcripts.