By Glenn Fannick 
Dow Jones Insight Staff
If John McCain is hoping that the national polls are overstating his opponent’s lead and that he’ll get the electoral math to tip his way on the only day that matters, he won’t find too much solace in local press coverage in a handful of battleground states. Because here, as with almost every other way the media coverage is sliced, Barack Obama was ahead in the media race during the past week.
In the period of October 19 to 25 versus the previous week, the Democrat increased his lead in total number of headline mentions in four battleground states – Nevada (by 21 percentage points, on the heels of visits by him and his wife), North Carolina (by 10 points), Florida (4 points) and Missouri (3 points). He lost ground, though, in Colorado (where his lead shrunk by 6 percentage points, on a strong push by McCain there), Ohio (2 points) and Pennsylvania (2 points).
And it is Pennsylvania – where Obama has a comfortable lead in public polls, but where the McCain camp insists its private polls put the state at a dead heat – which appears the closest in the headline race. The week of October 19 to 25 showed a 51%-49% split barely leaning Obama’s way. That is a 2-percentage-point drop there for Obama.
And what are those reporters writing about in Pennsylvania? Like everywhere else, it’s kitchen-table issues, with the economy and taxes in the top two slots. As to how Pennsylvania’s coverage differs, it’s not dramatic, but the data show slight variation. The issue of “experience” shows up in the top 10, which was not the case in the other battleground states when taken as a group.
The everyman message of “Joe the plumber” still resonates in Pennsylvania as in the other battlegrounds, getting mentioned more than the issues of jobs, health care and the financial bailout. International issues, including both wars, did not make the top 10.
Methodology: Sources include selected newspapers, newspaper Web sites and broadcast outlets in each state. The past two weeks were compared and the two periods saw similar number of articles written in each state.
Showing posts with label battleground states. Show all posts
Showing posts with label battleground states. Show all posts
28 October 2008
Obama Extends or Holds Onto ‘Headline’ Leads in Several Battlegrounds States – Except Pennsylvania
23 October 2008
Obama’s ‘Headline Lead’ Larger Than Average in Colorado, Ohio and Florida
By Glenn Fannick
Dow Jones Insight Staff
The national split of headline mentions in the most recent weekly analysis shows 54% of headline mentions for Obama and 46% for McCain. The breakdown in Red and Blue states is about the same, as it is in the Gray States when taken as a whole.
So this week we decided to focus not on the Gray States as whole but specifically on some that will likely matter most. Here we see some splits wider than the national split. In a few states, Obama’s lead is greater, and in a few it’s less. For example, Colorado, Missouri, Ohio and Florida all show Obama leads that are greater than his lead at the national level, while North Carolina and Nevada show closer races – gaps of about four percentage points.
Colorado has voted Republican three times in the past four, and now, with its influx of first-generation Hispanic voters, it becomes a state both sides think they can win. Closely watched Florida, where Obama is outspending McCain 4-1 of late according to CNN, has a 55%-45% breakdown in the most recent period. Perennial battleground Ohio and Missouri, with its surge in newly registered African American voters, are both at 57%-43% for Obama. And Nevada, with many newly registered Democrats, has Obama up a few points in the polls and a close 53%-48% split. North Carolina, also at 53%-48%, has been solidly Republican for much of the past several decades but is a dead heat in the polls.
While there is no consensus on exactly how to determine if a state is a “battleground,” one thing is generally agreed upon: the election will likely tip to the candidate who wins in most of these key states. Over the past several months, Dow Jones Insight has analyzed the nation along red, blue and gray lines, strictly defining a Red State as one that has gone for the GOP four elections in a row, a Blue State as one that’s gone Democratic four in a row and a Gray State as one that has split. Our analysis includes television and print news media based in those states.
During most weeks, Red and Blue have been at most only a few points apart. And the most recent week, October 13 to October 19, was no different. Obama led in the count of headline mentions in both Red States (53%-47%) and Blue States (54%-46%). Perhaps this shows the press is not being influenced by the voting record of its readership. Or perhaps it underscores the argument that the country is more purple than it is two crisp camps.
So this week we decided to focus not on the Gray States as whole but specifically on some that will likely matter most. Here we see some splits wider than the national split. In a few states, Obama’s lead is greater, and in a few it’s less. For example, Colorado, Missouri, Ohio and Florida all show Obama leads that are greater than his lead at the national level, while North Carolina and Nevada show closer races – gaps of about four percentage points.
Colorado has voted Republican three times in the past four, and now, with its influx of first-generation Hispanic voters, it becomes a state both sides think they can win. Closely watched Florida, where Obama is outspending McCain 4-1 of late according to CNN, has a 55%-45% breakdown in the most recent period. Perennial battleground Ohio and Missouri, with its surge in newly registered African American voters, are both at 57%-43% for Obama. And Nevada, with many newly registered Democrats, has Obama up a few points in the polls and a close 53%-48% split. North Carolina, also at 53%-48%, has been solidly Republican for much of the past several decades but is a dead heat in the polls.
While there is no consensus on exactly how to determine if a state is a “battleground,” one thing is generally agreed upon: the election will likely tip to the candidate who wins in most of these key states. Over the past several months, Dow Jones Insight has analyzed the nation along red, blue and gray lines, strictly defining a Red State as one that has gone for the GOP four elections in a row, a Blue State as one that’s gone Democratic four in a row and a Gray State as one that has split. Our analysis includes television and print news media based in those states.
During most weeks, Red and Blue have been at most only a few points apart. And the most recent week, October 13 to October 19, was no different. Obama led in the count of headline mentions in both Red States (53%-47%) and Blue States (54%-46%). Perhaps this shows the press is not being influenced by the voting record of its readership. Or perhaps it underscores the argument that the country is more purple than it is two crisp camps.
Blue States are defined as those that were carried by the Democrats in all four of the most recent presidential elections: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington and Wisconsin. Red States are defined as those that were carried by the GOP in all four of the most recent presidential elections: Alaska, Alabama, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Virginia and Wyoming.
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